COVID-19: Original Article
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Analyzing the dynamics of complicated and uncomplicated appendicitis during the COVID-19 pandemic in Seoul, Korea: a multifaceted time series approach
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Kiook Baek, Chulyong Park
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Epidemiol Health. 2024;46:e2024081. Published online October 1, 2024
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.4178/epih.e2024081
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Abstract
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Supplementary Material
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Abstract
OBJECTIVES
This study investigated the impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and associated control strategies on the incidence of appendicitis in Seoul, using data from 2018 to 2020 from Korea’s National Health Insurance.
METHODS
We analyzed records of total, complicated, and uncomplicated appendicitis cases, as well as the ratio of complicated to uncomplicated appendicitis, using natural spline and piecewise regression models to identify trends and breakpoints. Bayesian structural time-series (BSTS) models were used to evaluate the causal impact of social distancing on appendicitis incidences.
RESULTS
The spline regression analysis indicated decreasing trends in both total and uncomplicated appendicitis cases. Conversely, the incidence of complicated appendicitis and the ratio of complicated to uncomplicated cases increased. Breakpoints for a decline in uncomplicated appendicitis and a rise in the ratio occurred at 31 weeks in 2020 (95% confidence interval [CI], 23.2 to 38.8) and at 33.9 weeks (95% CI, 28.3 to 39.6), respectively. The BSTS model demonstrated a 7.8% reduction in total appendicitis cases (95% credible interval [CrI], -12.1 to -3.3). It also showed a 17.4% decrease in uncomplicated cases (95% CrI, -22.2 to -12.3) and increases of 12.8% (95% CrI, 4.9 to 22.0) in complicated cases and 39.0% (95% CrI, 27.0 to 53.3) in the ratio of complicated to uncomplicated appendicitis.
CONCLUSIONS
The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in a decrease in both total and uncomplicated appendicitis cases, while the number of complicated cases increased. Reduced medical visits likely accounted for these changes. Strategies are needed to manage changes in disease pathophysiology resulting from altered healthcare utilization during health crises.
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Summary
Korean summary
-여러 연구에서 COVID-19 유행기간에 급성 충수염의 역학에 대한 변화가 있었다는 보고가 있어 국내 건강보험 청구 자료를 사용하여 확인하고자 하였다.
-시계열 데이터로 역학의 변동 시점에 대한 분석을 수행한 결과, 유의미한 합병증이 없는 충수염의 감소와, 합병증을 동반한 충수염의 비율 변동이 시작된 시점은 사회적 거리두기를 한 시점과 유사한 것으로 나타났다.
-사회적 거리두기를 한 시점 전후의 급성 충수염 역학을 비교하였을 때, 총 급성 충수염 및 합병증이 없는 충수염은 감소하는 경향이, 합병증을 동반한 충수염은 증가하는 경향이 유의하게 보였다.
Key Message
Several studies have reported changes in the epidemiology of acute appendicitis during the COVID-19 pandemic; this study aimed to confirm these findings using national health insurance claims data.
Time-series analysis of the epidemiological shift points showed that the decrease in uncomplicated appendicitis cases and the shift in the proportion of complicated appendicitis cases occurred around the time social distancing measures were implemented.
When comparing the epidemiology of acute appendicitis before and after the onset of social distancing, there was a significant decrease in the incidence of total acute appendicitis and uncomplicated cases, with a significant increase in complicated appendicitis cases.
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Citations
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